You'll often hear that most jackpot winners used Quick Pick, usually with the suggestion that letting the machine choose is luckier. The first part is true. The second doesn't follow, because most tickets are Quick Picks too. The Minnesota Lottery's FAQ puts it this way: for Powerball, "the quick-pick percentage normally runs about 70 percent, and about 70 percent of the winners are from quick-pick tickets." A method used on 70% of tickets that produces 70% of the winners has no edge.
How does Quick Pick choose your numbers?
The lottery terminal uses a random number generator. When you ask for a Quick Pick, it chooses the right count of different numbers from the game's main range, plus a bonus ball if the game has one. It doesn't favor "lucky" numbers, avoid past winners or look at which numbers have been drawn recently.
A Quick Pick has exactly the same odds as any other line. So does a hand-picked line. A ticket reading 1-2-3-4-5 is as likely to win as 17-29-41-52-66, and both are as likely as the numbers a relative has played for forty years. The official odds make no distinction: 1 in 292,201,338 for the Powerball jackpot and 1 in 290,472,336 for Mega Millions, however the numbers were chosen.
Why do people think their own numbers are luckier?
Psychologists have names for the pull. The illusion of control is the sense that taking part in a choice affects the result, even when the result is pure chance. Numbers you chose also start to feel like yours, so you notice when they come close and forget the many times they didn't. And the people who win with family birthdays tell that story, while the far larger number who lose with them have nothing to tell.
Does the way you pick matter at all?
It can't change your odds of winning. It can change how much you'd win if you did, because it affects how likely you are to share the jackpot.
Many people build their lines from birthdays and anniversaries, which only go up to 31. A winning combination made entirely of low numbers is therefore more likely to be held by several people at once. A Quick Pick draws from the whole range with no such tilt, so on average it's less likely to be duplicated by someone choosing on purpose.
Quick Picks can still match each other by chance. Each one is an independent random draw, and when a huge jackpot sells hundreds of millions of tickets against about 290 million possible combinations, some lines will repeat. Any line carries that baseline risk. Hand-picked lines add extra risk when they follow popular patterns: dates, straight lines or shapes on the play slip, sequences like 1-2-3-4-5, or last week's winning numbers.
If you pick your own, what helps?
Two habits lower the chance of sharing, without changing the chance of winning:
- Include some numbers above 31, so the line isn't made only of possible dates.
- Spread the numbers across the range instead of bunching them or following a pattern on the slip.
A Quick Pick does both automatically. Our guide to how to pick lottery numbers goes further, and lucky numbers, birthdays and horoscopes covers the date problem in more detail.
Which should you use?
Whichever you enjoy more. If giving up numbers that mean something to you would spoil the fun, keep them. If you just want to be in the drawing, ask for a Quick Pick. The odds are the same either way.
If you'd like a line before you go to the store, game cards on Lottery Atlas show a suggested pick, and there are dedicated generators for Powerball and Mega Millions. Most suggestions are purely random; some are weighted toward the "hot" or "cold" numbers from a game's last 50 draws, a measure explained in our methodology. None of these modes improves your odds over the terminal's own Quick Pick.
Quick Pick FAQ
Do more lottery winners use Quick Pick?
Yes, but only because more players use it. The Minnesota Lottery says about 70% of Powerball tickets are Quick Picks and about 70% of winners come from Quick Pick tickets, which is what equal odds would predict.
Are Quick Pick numbers truly random?
Yes. The lottery terminal generates each Quick Pick independently with a random number generator, within the game's number ranges. It doesn't favor past winners or numbers that haven't come up lately.
Is it better to pick your own lottery numbers?
Not for your odds. A hand-picked line and a Quick Pick have identical chances of winning. Choosing your own numbers matters only if you pick popular patterns such as birthdays, which raise the chance of sharing a jackpot.
Why are birthday numbers a bad idea for the lottery?
Birthdays only cover 1 to 31, and many players use them. A winning line built entirely from dates is more likely to be shared. Your odds of winning are the same, but your share of the jackpot could be smaller.
Sources: Minnesota Lottery lotto FAQ (mnlottery.com), Powerball prize chart (powerball.com), Mega Millions How to Play page (megamillions.com).
